With the United States in the knockout round of the World Cup, Saturday's match against Ghana should emerge as the most-watched soccer game in U.S. history, and some might argue it could serve as the latest launching point for a nationwide popularity surge for the sport.These arguments come every four years or so, usually in conjunction with the World Cup (or the Women's World Cup, which the United States won in 1999). Before that, there was the 1970s uptick in popularity sparked by the North American Soccer League, home of the New York Cosmos and its roster of international soccer stars such as Pele, Franz Beckenbauer and Giorgio Chinaglia.
All too often, those "next big moments" play out and little follows -- which might be the case this time as well.
On-field standouts and quality play need something more to produce a watershed moment for a sport. They need attention and a public response.
Luckily for soccer at this time, ESPN provides just such an enthusiastic partner with its endless promotions and quality coverage and production. And viewers have responded in record numbers.
Some 13 million watched the U.S. team's first match in pool play vs. England on ABC and this week's final match of group play vs. Algeria drew 6.1 million viewers to ESPN on Wednesday morning, making it the most-viewed weekday morning event in the all-sports network's history. (Yes, there must be some perspective with that because the number of quality, ratings-drawing morning programming has been limited, at best, through the years. Still, it's impressive.)
So, the stage would seem set for a big moment for soccer because of a rare combination of nationalistic attention and interest. Other sports have parlayed those things into turning point moments, but it's just not that simple for soccer in the United States.
When it Worked
1958: The first TV moment that validated a sport came Sunday, Dec. 28, 1958. In the NFL championship game (years before there was Super Bowl), the Baltimore Colts and New York Giants played to a tie through four quarters and the game entered sudden death overtime for the first time in league history.
After New York took the opening kickoff and was forced to punt, Baltimore pounded the ball down the field. They reached the 8-yard-line when the game was interrupted as a man ran on the field. (In another example of the power of TV, that man was an NBC employee who was told to create a distraction so the network could repair its feed, which had just gone dead.) When play resumed a few minutes later, the Colts continued their drive and Alan Ameche eventually scored the decisive touchdown on a 1-yard run.
Some 45 million people in the United States watched the game (even though it was blacked out in New York City), and it was credited as the event that launched the NFL into public consciousness -- spurring a growth trend that has pretty much continued for 50-plus years.
1979: On Monday, March 26, 1979, Indiana State with Larry Bird and Michigan State with Earvin "Magic" Johnson met in the championship game of the NCAA men's basketball tournament. It was the final act of the Final Four -- and the first act that helped spur college basketball and the NCAA Tournament to previously unimaginable heights.
Interest in the game was unparalleled, and the game remains the highest-rated basketball game, college or professional, in U.S. history. Some 35 million people watched as Michigan State won, 75-64. Bird and Magic were the focal points, as they had been throughout the tournament.
In the years that followed, the NCAA Tournament expanded from 40 to 64 teams and became a cash cow for the NCAA itself -- because the TV rights that CBS and its partners now pay ($10.8 billion through 2024) to carry the tournament help support every other championship sanctioned by the NCAA.
Also, it's probably fair to argue that the game, as the kickoff and first in-person meeting for the the Bird-Magic rivalry, helped the NBA as well. Both players went pro the following year and their rivalry eventually made pro basketball a TV successful staple again.
1987: The most-watched college football game of all time took place Jan. 2, 1987 when top-ranked Miami met No. 2 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl for the national championship. Officials at NBC had moved the game to Friday night, making it the first bowl game ever contested after New Year's Day, and expected people across the nation would watch.
They were correct, and surprised, as nearly 70 million people watched a good game with a great storyline -- hard-working simple and solid Penn State against brash, colorful and loud Miami. The game was close from start to finish. In the final minute, a late Pete Giftopolous interception stopped a Miami drive and secured Penn State's 14-10 victory.
After that, college football once again emerged as more of a national sport. Big games, including bowl games, moved more regularly to accommodate TV. Also, New Year's Day was no longer a sacred or secure date and many bowl games moved to Jan. 1 or later.
Still, it's Soccer
Those success stories make the combination of compelling athletic competition and widespread attention with millions of TV viewers sound like a sure-fire blueprint for success, but that's not always the case. The formula often fails with Olympic sports or quadrennial events, such as the World Cup.
For example, while 41 million people watched Olympic figure skating on Feb. 25, 1994, most were interested in what would happen to Tonya Harding and Nancy Kerrigan. Kerrigan had been attacked at U.S. nationals and was sent to the Olympic games with her recovery uncertain.
Skating officials connected Harding (and her husband, bodyguard and other accomplices) to the attack before the Olympic Games in Norway and attempted to remove her from the U.S. team. But she threatened legal action and stayed on the team. Kerrigan eventually earned the silver medal while Harding finished eighth. She later had her U.S. title stripped was banned for life from U.S. figure skating events as a competitor or coach.
It was reality TV before networks created the genre, and it did nothing for figure skating popularity.
Concrete Comparison
Perhaps the most fair comparison for World Cup impact and ratings can be found in Olympic hockey -- especially the United States-Canada matchups just this year in Vancouver.
The teams met twice, first in the preliminary round and then in the gold medal game.
In the preliminary round, which was shown live only on MSNBC, 8.2 million people watched the United States earn a 5-3 victory.
More than a week later in the gold medal game, Canada recorded a 3-2 overtime victory that attracted an average of 27.6 million viewers on NBC. At its most-watched moment, some 32 million people were watching.
If soccer matches those numbers (and it has a way to go because the 8.2 million watching on MSNBC trump the 6.1 who watched this week on ESPN), it would be an interesting progression for the sport -- and a major victory.
For anyone to discuss or expect that the soccer team's success in the World Cup this year would propel the sport to more mainstream status in the United States is a bit optimistic at best and simplistic at worst. Even with a favorable formula, any "next big step" remains far away and unrealistic.
Soccer might eventually emerge as a more mainstream sport in the United States with a verifiable major professional league on U.S. soil that people care about at watch, but that's more likely to be the result of years of little steps as opposed to one big leap.
Proper Perspective
ESPN Radio host Erik Kuselias was spot-on with his analysis of the U.S. victory that pushed them out of pool play. He called Landon Donovan's goal the most important in U.S. soccer history and he was correct.
Had the U.S. endured another draw and not made the knockout round, it would've been a disappointment and ended the sport's chances with casual fans -- again. Or at least for the next four years.
Instead, the program got an emotional lift and a chance to play more meaningful matches.
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